Going on Record

I’m not an original thinker–at least not often. I do have, I believe, a better than average ability to sort claims into categories along the true-false spectrum. Of course, I have several biases in my data collection methodology–1. I am me and am partial to data that supports the hypothesis that I am awesome. 2) I have a terrible memory and am prone to construct narratives of my past beliefs from whole cloth supporting the hypothesis that I am awesome.

And so, the only solution is to go on record with my support of other’s predictions and see, over the course of time, how able I am to detect accurate forecasters from inaccurate.

I won’t take credit for the easy ones: Bill Kristol, George Will, Paul Krugman, anyone else in policy positions or in the MSM. These guys are never right*–it’s sort of their job never to be right.

No, I’ll try to stick to the alternative and academic media as much as possible. At least in those circles, there’s *some* consideration given to the track record of the person making a claim or prediction. Picking out the wheat from the chaff in this field will be a worthy test of my claim of super-average bullshit detection.

*Unless they’re contradicting a position they previously held–predicting two opposing outcomes does not equal accurate forecasting.

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  1. October 31st, 2009

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