Going on Record
I’m not an original thinker–at least not often. I do have, I believe, a better than average ability to sort claims into categories along the true-false spectrum. Of course, I have several biases in my data collection methodology–1. I am me and am partial to data that supports the hypothesis that I am awesome. 2) I have a terrible memory and am prone to construct narratives of my past beliefs from whole cloth supporting the hypothesis that I am awesome.
And so, the only solution is to go on record with my support of other’s predictions and see, over the course of time, how able I am to detect accurate forecasters from inaccurate.
No, I’ll try to stick to the alternative and academic media as much as possible. At least in those circles, there’s *some* consideration given to the track record of the person making a claim or prediction. Picking out the wheat from the chaff in this field will be a worthy test of my claim of super-average bullshit detection.
*Unless they’re contradicting a position they previously held–predicting two opposing outcomes does not equal accurate forecasting.